How big?
It is hard to over-estimate the importance of the South Carolina Republican primary. It was the second earthquake to hit the East Coast within the last six months ? but this one could have far greater aftershocks.
Continue ReadingThe epicenter is the Republican Party. With its future now radically altered, it could have profound implications for the nation.
This could rank with California in 1964, North Carolina in 1976 and New Hampshire in 1980. Barry M. Goldwater in the Golden State, Ronald Reagan in the Tar Heel State and Reagan, again, in the Granite State, all ran as insurgents at crucial times for the GOP. All won major victories over moderate opponents, changing the party?s future ? and the nation?s.
At the Republican convention in 1960, Goldwater was not happy with Richard M. Nixon?s nomination. The Arizona senator stormed at conservatives to ?grow up,? stop complaining and get to work to take over the party. Four years later, they did.
Goldwater had been deeply concerned about the then-vice president?s recent concessions to New York Gov. Nelson A. Rockefeller. Goldwater felt that ?Tricky Dick? had displayed weakness by going to New York essentially to kiss the ring of the leading GOP moderate. It was dubbed the ?5th Avenue Compact.? But Goldwater acidly labeled it, ?Munich of 5th Avenue.?
This indeed undermined Nixon?s presidential effort. Some staunch conservatives, who might once have favored the longtime red-basher Nixon, decided to support Democrat John F. Kennedy instead ? because he portrayed himself as more anti-communist.
When Goldwater ran in 1964, the nomination race came down to the key California primary against Rockefeller. Rocky had money and California?s cosmopolitan culture on his side. He had the TV networks and the newspapers. He didn?t, however, have the voters. Goldwater won a stunning victory that propelling him to a win on the first convention ballot.
By 1968, Nixon had learned his lesson. He had also convinced leading conservatives, including William F. Buckley, to support him over then-Gov. Ronald Reagan. But Nixon?s White House years helped convince conservatives not the trust the GOP establishment ? and establishment supplicants like Nixon.
In 1976, Gerald R. Ford, advised by Henry Kissinger, Donald Rumsfeld and others, pursued Nixon?s liberal policies. He seemed to almost push Reagan into challenging him in the primaries, hurling personal insults at the Gipper.
Reagan lost the first five primaries. By North Carolina, he was $2 million in debt, reeling and opposed by virtually everyone in the GOP establishment. And I mean everybody.
In Raleigh, N.C., Reagan received a telegram signed by numerous GOP officials, telling him to get out of the race. Paul Laxalt was with him and Reagan exploded, telling Laxalt that the Republicans who signed the missive ?could go [do something to] themselves,? according to Laxalt.
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